Will Londoners Moving out of the Capital Buoy the Canterbury Market?
Growing numbers of Londoners are quitting the capital to buy an affordable home elsewhere, and typically the leavers are now younger than ever before.
This is obviously not a new phenomenon. Data from a leading international agency shows that Londoners left the capital and purchased 73,000 homes elsewhere in 2019, spending on average £358,650 on their new abode. This overall trend is much higher than a decade ago when only 41,900 left the capital.
Affordability is the main barrier in the capital, driving people to leave London at a younger age. The average age of a Londoner purchasing a home outside the capital in 2019 was 39 years old, some eight years younger than in 2009 and four years younger than in 2015.
For many, moving out of London means they can buy a larger home for their money, but for many others, leaving London is the only way to get onto the housing ladder. Some 24% of Londoners who purchased a home outside the capital in 2019 were first time buyers. Again this trend is on the rise, with an increase from the 2016 rate of 22%, 2016 and considerably higher than the 14% recorded in 2013.
Most London leavers stay in the South of England, but there is a trend towards moving further from the capital as affordability barriers in the South are starting to have an impact.
So when it comes down to a local level, what does this mean for Canterbury? Should we be excited that we will be flooded with new buyers moving from London as the property market picks up this year?
According to figures from Kent County Council for 2017/18 Net Internal Migration (people moving from elsewhere in the UK) to Kent was over 8000 people.
Kent attracts people from all over the UK but mainly London (46.6%) and elsewhere in the South East (25.9%), and 73.1% of the internal migrants were aged between 25 and 44.
However on average over the last decade the net internal migration to Canterbury from the rest of the UK has been 1030 people, but the latest figures available for 2017/18 there was negative internal migration of -400 people.
Breaking the figures down further, looking at internal migration as a whole rather than just net internal migrants , the total number of internal migrants for 2018 was 13500 people, with 3900 people coming from London. The internal migration figures are inflated due to the high volume of students that move in and out of Canterbury each year, so we can not definitively say how many of those internal migrants would have been in the market to purchase a property.
So "Will Londoners moving out of the capital buoy the Canterbury market? "
The answer is that is that there are clearly an increasing number of people moving from London to Kent, which will help to buoy the Kent market. Unfortunately, it is not as clear cut for Canterbury, as it is harder to define the migrant population to confirm whether or not the market will be buoyed.
But what we can say unequivocally and will continue to shout from the roof tops is that Canterbury is a fantastic, cosmopolitan, cultural city with diverse quality housing and a fast train to the capital, therefore more than capable of attracting London families, couples and singletons. They just need to know we are here!
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